2021 - A list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2020 turned out far better for diversified investors than had been feared when the pandemic hit, which triggered plunging market shares and deep recessions. The average balanced growth superannuation funds look like they have returned around 3%. This followed around 15% last year. Balanced growth funds returns have averaged about 7% per annum over the last five years, which is well above inflation and bank deposit returns.

The key points are:

  • 2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared;

  • 2021 is expected to provide solid returns and see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments;

  • Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; US politics; China tensions; inflation; and the hit to immigration in Australia.

Click here to read Oliver’s Insights, and views on the investment outlook.

COVID-19 Vaccine Development

Pfizer has recently conducted their Phase III COVID-19 vaccine trial, resulting in 90% efficacy. This outcome, paired with continued progress on other COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and treatments, generates hope for a faster return to normalcy. The second half of 2021 will be a ramp up period towards societal “normalcy”, with a return to normal life for most people occurring sometime in 2022.

Please click here to read a brief interview between healthcare analyst, Andrew Waight, and Altrinsic’s Head of Client Experience, Sara Sikes, regarding the vaccine development.

Thoughts on the Market

Vice President Biden appears set to be the 46th President of the United States, most likely with a divided Congress. A split Congress has two opposing effects on growth. On the positive side, it should mean that more centrist policies are likely to be pursued, all of which are constructive for growth. Conversely, a Republican controlled US senate is likely to pursue a material decline of the US fiscal deficit, which is set to underpin a large US fiscal drag in 2021.

Click here to read more on Perpetual Investments’ thoughts on the US economy amidst the change of Presidency and the surging pandemic.

Making retirement funding last the distance

We are all living longer, fuller lives, and for many people retirement may now span almost as long as our working careers. We are at a tipping point, with a huge number of baby boomers set to retire and a global pandemic changing the landscape.

The statistics paint a concerning picture, with the average Australian set to outlive their money by 11 years.

Click here to read Kate and Tony’s story, and how they plan on their retirement funding to last the distance.

Top negotiating tips to cut your bills now

If you’re feeling the heat of mounting bills, don’t panic. You can negotiate a better deal that lets you hang onto your cash while you weather the COVID-19 pandemic.

Household electricity, gas, and water use have all jumped by upwards of 15% - meaning that many of us are facing hefty bills on top of lower than usual income. I

If you need to rein in your spending, or you’re struggling to pay your debts due to ongoing financial hardship, you can negotiate a better deal.

Click here to read more on your options, how to negotiate with creditors, and what to do if you are still in debt.

Oliver's Notes: Nine keys to successful investing - and why they are more important than ever in the face of the coronavirus shock

The linked article takes a look at what Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital, sees as the nine keys to being a successful investor, and what impact the coronavirus shock has had on them.

Even in good times, successful investing can be stressful. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things - call them rules - in mind.

The key rules are:

  • make the most of compound interest;

  • don’t get thrown off by the cycle;

  • invest for the long term;

  • diversify;

  • turn down the noise;

  • buy low and sell high;

  • beware of the crowd;

  • focus on investments offering a sustainable cash flow; and

  • seek advice.

Please click here to read further.

How to COVID-proof your travel plans

Is lockdown fatigue getting the better of you? If you’re dreaming of a beachside holiday, you might be wondering if it’s safe to make travel plans.

With summer on the horizon and the country stuck in various levels of lockdown, many of us will be craving a change of scene.

Click here to read more on planning travel now and into the future.

Why you need a Will

In 2020, COVID-19 has introduced significant health risks and changes to family life. It’s now more important to have an estate plan so that you can make sure your family and loved ones are looked after should you become ill and die.

Click here to read more on what an estate plan is, Powers of Attorney, how to make a Will, and what happens if you don’t have a Will.

Hand-in-hand: financial wellbeing and mental health

As COVID-19 continues to damage Australia’s economy and impact the job market, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the pandemic is presenting many people with significant challenges.

Click here to read Beyond Blue’s chat with Laura Higgins, head of moneysmart.gov.au, about why getting on top of your finances is so important for mental wellbeing.

Diversification - Spread your investments and lower your risk

Diversification is an oft-heard term when reading about investing, but what does it actually mean, and how can it benefit you?

Essentially, it’s about not putting all of your eggs into one basket. Click here to read about this investment strategy that lowers your portfolio’s risk and helps you get more stable returns

US dollar breaking down, gold and the AUD breaking up - what does it mean for investors?

The current surge in gold prices is leading to a record high. The US dollar is falling, and the Australian dollar is rising. The key points of the attached note are as follows:

  • The US dollar looks to have peaked, in part reflecting reduced safe haven demand with more downside likely.

  • The gold price has broken out to a record high, reflecting a declining US dollar, investors demand for an inflation hedge and a fall in the opportunity cost of holding gold. More upside is likely.

  • The Australian dollar has broken higher, reflecting the declining US dollar, along with higher commodity prices and it’s likely the trend will remain up.

Click here to read more

A message from MLC's Chief Investment Officer

Share markets in March fell faster and deeper than at any time since the 1930s, yet the US S& P 500 Index closed the June quarter about 20% higher than it began, its best quarter run since 1998. Over the same period, the global and Australian share markets also recorded double-digit gains, and are now not far off their mid-February highs.

Click here to read the thoughts of MLC’s Chief Investment Officer.

Australian economic and fiscal update - record budget deficits, but more to come

This economic and fiscal update is the first since December’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook when budget surpluses looked just around the corner. Since then things have changed dramatically due to the hit from coronavirus and necessary support measures from the Government.

The key points are:

  • The Government expects the federal budget deficit to peak at a record $184.5bn this financial year. That’s around 9.7% of GDP, its highest since the end of WW2.

  • Ultimately, we expect it to be around $220bn as the Government unveils more stimulus & revenue recovers more slowly than projected by the Government.

  • The budget and associated debt blowout is unlikely to cause a major problem as public debt is relatively low, borrowing costs are very low, the Government is borrowing in $A’s & it’s not dependent on foreign capital. Letting the deficit rise is the right thing to do.

Click here to read more