Oliver's Insights - Nine bad habits of ineffective investors: common mistakes investors make

The key points are:

  • Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong.

  • As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head.

  • The easiest way to avoid many of these mistakes is to have a long-term investment plan that aligns your financial goals with your risk tolerance.

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Oliver's Insights - China's big stimulus - will it work? And what does it mean for Australia?

After a run of disappointing economic data, collapsing property prices and Chinese shares falling to their lowest since 2019 giving rise to increasing concerns about the outlook, China appears to be moving towards aggressive policy stimulus. But what’s driving the change? Will it work? And what does it mean for investors and Australia?

Key points:

  • A move towards more aggressive fiscal policy stimulus and property support measures should help drive a mild cyclical upswing in China’s economy.

  • However, it’s doubtful it will be enough to reverse longer term structural problems facing China – around excess saving, demographics and growing state control.

  • The Australian economy is less sensitive to China than it used to be, but a stimulus driven cyclical boost to the Chinese economy is still positive for the Australian economy, share market and the $A.


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Develop an investment plan + Check before you invest + Have you got investing FOMO

Planning is the key to successful investing. Creating a plan will help you find investments that fit your investing time frame and risk tolerance, to help you reach your financial goals sooner.

Develop an investing plan

Check the facts before you invest

Before you part with your money, check: Are they licensed? Can I explain how it works? Are there signs it could be a scam? What can I do if something goes wrong? Learn how.

Check before you invest

Have you got investing FOMO? 

If you're hearing a lot of buzz around a type of investment and don't want to miss out, STOP! It might be a hype-driven investment. 

How to avoid investment hype

Oliver's Insights – Harris versus Trump - implications for investors and Australia

The key points are:

  • The US election has significant potential to impact markets. A Harris victory would mean more of the same but a Trump victory could lead to uncertainty particularly around trade.

  • Australia would be vulnerable to a rapid intensification of trade wars which is looking likely under a Trump presidency.

  • Historically, shares have performed better under Democrat than Republican presidents with the best outcome being a Democrat president & Republican House and/or Senate.

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Moneysmart tips: Simple steps to manage your super

Your super isn't always top of mind when you're focused on juggling work, family life, and the many other responsibilities of adulting. But taking an active interest in your super now, can set you up for the lifestyle you want in the future. 

New research from Moneysmart has revealed the concerning trend that nearly half (48%) of surveyed millennials admit they are not knowledgeable about maximising their super. That's why Moneysmart's new campaign aims to drive awareness about why focusing on superannuation earlier is good for your long-term financial health.

When it comes to your super, extra contributions are just one option for growing your future wealth. Check out these other ways to secure a better financial future. 

Simple steps to manage your super

Check you're being paid the right amount of super

The super guarantee (SG) is now 11.5% of your income. To see how much your employer is paying you, look at your payslip or call your super fund.

How to calculate your super payments

Make sure your super fund can contact you

Your fund will use your email address and mobile number to send you important updates, including your annual statement. Reading your annual statement is a good way to stay connected with your super.

What to check in your annual statement

Check your insurance cover

Most super funds provide life cover and TPD insurance for their members. Make sure you're only paying for the insurance you need.

Tips for choosing insurance through super

Consider combining your super

Moving your super into one account makes your super easier to manage and saves on fees. You can transfer your super for free in a few easy steps.

How to check if you have multiple accounts

Oliver's Insights - Will house prices crash? And what's needed to fix housing affordability

Apart from “what will home prices do?" and "where are the best places to buy a property?" the main debate around the Australian housing market has been about poor housing affordability, occasionally interspersed with a scare that home prices will crash. The most recent example of the latter was on 60 Minutes last week with a call by US demographer & economist Harry S Dent that Australian house prices could fall “as much as 50% in the coming years”. But how serious should we take forecasts for a crash? And more fundamentally how do we fix affordability?

Key points:

  • Predictions of an Australian house price crash create lots of interest but have been a dime a dozen over the last 20 yrs.

  • However, there is more to the surge in property prices than easy money with a supply shortfall being the main factor. Absent much higher interest rates and or unemployment, a house price crash in Australia looks unlikely.

  • The key to sustainably improving housing affordability is to boost supply, better align immigration to housing supply, reduce or delay public infrastructure spending, encourage decentralisation and tax reform.

  • A failure to boost affordability risks a further slide in home ownership and rising inequality.


Read full article here.

Advice Evolution Newsletter - August 2024

Stay up-to-date with the tips, news and updates from Advice Evolution’s latest newsletter.

  • Claiming business expenses - Your guide to claiming business expenses correctly.

  • Crafting a Happy Retirement: Personalised Planning and Essential Tips for a Fulfilling Future.

  • Why Time Is Wealth.

  • The problem with chasing money.

  • Smartly spend your time wealth.

  • Shifting the attention from material wealth to time wealth.


Read full newsletter here.

Oliver's Insights – Why super and growth assets really are long term investments

The key points are as follows:

  • While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds and cash, they provide superior long-term returns. So, it makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them.

  • The best approach is to simply recognise that occasional sharp falls in share markets and hence super funds are normal and that investing in both is a long-term investment.

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Oliver's Insights – Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on – where are they now?

The key points are as follows:

  • Shares have hit a rough patch since recent highs with concerns about the growth outlook.

  • We remain upbeat on a 12-month view as falling inflation allows rate cuts and hopefully recession is avoided or is mild. But the risk of a further correction in shares is high.

  • Seven key charts worth watching are: inflation; inflation expectations; global business conditions PMIs; unemployment and underemployment; earnings revisions; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and changes in the $US.

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Oliver's Insights - The rise of populism and bigger government - what it means for investors

Key points:

  • The continuing rise of populism globally – as evident in recent European elections and in the US with Trump and the Republican party – is signalling an ongoing shift away from economic rationalist policies in favour of greater government involvement in economies and less free trade.

  • While extra investment associated with government industrial policies may provide a short-term boost, the risk is high that the rise of populism and a bigger role for government in economies will contribute to more constrained medium-term investment returns.

  • Australia is less vulnerable but will still be impacted.


Read full article here.

How to check if you're eligible for low-fee banking

Choosing the right bank account and regularly checking the fees you're paying can help you look after and grow your money. 

ASIC’s recent report found that more than 150,000 people on low incomes were in high-fee bank accounts, despite being eligible for a basic low-fee account. 

Low-fee accounts are available if you qualify for a concession card issued by the Government. If this applies to you, ask your bank about their low-fee account options.


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Oliver's Insights - Australian shares at new record highs - is it sustainable?

It’s often said that shares climb a wall of worry, with good reason. The Australian All Ords price index since 1900 and despite wars, pandemics, and economic calamities, it’s managed to pick itself up and move on to new highs providing solid long term returns for investors.

Key points:

  • With Australian shares reaching a new record high we have revised up our slightly our expectations for the ASX 200 this year (from 7900 to 8100) reflecting prospects for lower interest rates globally and eventually in Australia boosting the growth outlook next year.

  • But given risks around valuations, near term growth and geopolitics we anticipate a volatile and more constrained outlook with a high risk of a correction in the August to September period, particularly if investors factor in the more negative economic implications of a Trump victory.


Read full article here.

Oliver's Insights – The five reasons why the $A is likely to rise further - if recession is avoided

The key points are as follows:

  • After a soft patch since 2021, there is good reason to expect the $A to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative; commodities still look to have entered a new super cycle; and Australia is a long way from the current account deficits of the past.

  • There is a case for Australian-based investors to remain tilted a bit to hedged global investments but while maintaining a still decent exposure to foreign currency.

  • The main downside risks for the $A would be if there is a recession or a new Trump trade war.

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Oliver's Insights – 2023-24 saw strong investment returns again - but can it continue?

The key points are as follows:

  • 2023-24 provided another year of strong returns for investors as shares were boosted by falling inflation, central banks pivoting towards rate cuts (although is RBA is lagging) and economic conditions were better than feared.

  • More central banks moving to cut rates, including the RBA early next year, should provide support for investment returns.

  • However, balanced growth super fund returns over the year ahead are likely to be more constrained at around 6-7% (compared to 9% over the last year) & more volatile with a high risk of a correction in the months ahead as valuations have deteriorated, recession risks remain high and geopolitical risks – including around the French and US elections – are also high.

  • The key is to adopt a long-term strategy & turn down the noise.

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Firstlinks Edition 566 with weekend update - Editor's Note

We all know that our minds and bodies deteriorate as we age. The good news is that our brains are highly malleable. That is, they can change and adapt due to experience. Medina, author of the book called “Brain Rules for Aging Well: 10 Principles for Staying Vital, Happy, and Sharp”, gives an overview of the latest findings in neuroscience, and he writes with humour and good grace, with references to the likes of Captain Kirk and the ‘I Love Lucy’ show.

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Oliver's Insights – The 9 most important things I have learned about investing over 40 years

The key point is as follows:

My nine most important lessons from investing over the last 40 years: there is always a cycle; the crowd gets it wrong at extremes; what you pay for an investment matters a lot; it’s hard to get markets right; investment markets don’t learn; compound interest is like magic when applied to investments; it pays to be optimistic; keep it simple; and you need to know yourself to be a good investor.

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