Key Points:
After a 22% rise in Australian home prices this year, they are expected to slow to 5% growth in 2022 with prices likely to fall 5-10% in 2023.
The main drivers behind the slowdown are: worsening affordability; rising supply; rising rates; macro prudential tightening; & a rotation in spending away from housing.
The main risks on the downside are another big covid set back or faster rate hikes & the main risk on the upside would be a fast return to pre-covid immigration.