Oliver's Insights – Commercial property returns under threat

Introduction

Over the last 10 and 20 years, returns from Australian unlisted commercial property have averaged 9% pa. This in part reflected the search for decent income bearing investments by investors in response to falling interest rates & bond yields that pushed up property values faster than justified by rents. However, it’s now vulnerable from the rise in bond yields over the last two years and reduced space demand flowing from “work from home” for office property and online retail for retail property.

Key points

- Australian unlisted commercial property returns have been very strong over the last two decades thanks largely to the “search for attractive yields” by investors.

- With the back up in bond yields, this driver is reversing leaving retail and particularly office property vulnerable to significant capital loss in the face of reduced space demand.

- Key to watch will be bond yields, whether the economy avoids recession and where “work from home” settles

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