Why value matters in investing - and what are valuations telling us now?
The key points are:
Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns.
Valuation starting points for term deposits and bonds have improved.
For shares they suggest constrained return potential, particularly from US shares thanks to rich tech sector valuations - but Australian, European and Chinese shares are a bit more attractive from a valuation perspective.
It's worth noting though that worries about the US share market’s dependence on tech stocks are not new and they have kept going for longer than many thought so trying to time their performance is very hard.