Oliver's Insights - Seasonal patterns in shares - should we "sell in May and go away"?

Coming out of the roughly 10% correction into October last year, share markets saw strong gains on hopes that lower inflation will allow central banks to cut interest rates and as global profits have remained strong. The going seems to have become tougher though with share markets falling in April amidst interest rate and geopolitical concerns begging the question as to whether it’s maybe now time to “sell in May and go away” given the old saying, in reference to seasonal patterns in shares.

Key points:

  • Seasonal patterns in shares gave rise to the saying “sell in May and go away, buy again on St Leger’s Day.”

  • However, seasonal patterns can’t always be relied on so while investors should be aware of them, betting on them solely to drive investment decisions is not wise.

  • We continue to see shares having reasonable returns this year but expect a more constrained & volatile ride over the rest of the year than was the case in the first three months.

Read full article here.