Oliver's Insights – 2023-24 saw strong investment returns again - but can it continue?

The key points are as follows:

  • 2023-24 provided another year of strong returns for investors as shares were boosted by falling inflation, central banks pivoting towards rate cuts (although is RBA is lagging) and economic conditions were better than feared.

  • More central banks moving to cut rates, including the RBA early next year, should provide support for investment returns.

  • However, balanced growth super fund returns over the year ahead are likely to be more constrained at around 6-7% (compared to 9% over the last year) & more volatile with a high risk of a correction in the months ahead as valuations have deteriorated, recession risks remain high and geopolitical risks – including around the French and US elections – are also high.

  • The key is to adopt a long-term strategy & turn down the noise.

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