The key points are:
So far shares have been relatively resilient but uncertainties are mounting particularly around Trump’s policies.
We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but expect a rougher more constrained ride this year for shares, with a 15% plus correction likely somewhere along the way.
Seven key charts worth watching are: Trump’s tariffs; long term inflation expectations; inflation; business conditions PMIs; profit growth; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the $US. Right now, they are mixed.