The key points are as follows:
The run up to the 5th November US election could see increased share market volatility if Trump remains ahead and investors focus on the risks of a new trade war and a hit to the US labour force and to Fed independence under Trump.
In terms of the investment market response to a Trump presidency, much will depend on the relative focus and sequencing of his market friendly policies (lower taxes and less regulation) versus his more market negative policies (to hike tariffs, cut immigration and curtail Fed independence).
Historically, shares have performed better under Democrat than Republican presidents with the best outcome being a Democrat president & Republican House or Senate control.
Australia would be vulnerable to a rapid intensification of trade wars which is looking likely under a Trump presidency.