Oliver's Insights – Australian home prices were up again in May - but the tension between high rates and the chronic shortage remains

The key points are as follows:

  • CoreLogic data showed national average home prices rose 0.8% in May, their strongest rise since last October.

  • The housing market remains remarkably resilient with the housing shortage and still solid jobs market providing support, offsetting the downwards pressure on prices from high interest rates and poor sentiment towards housing.

  • We expect home prices to rise around 5% this year as the supply shortfall continues to dominate, but the pushing out of rate cuts and the possibility of rate hikes along with the rising trend in unemployment pose a key downside risk.

  • Home price gains are likely to remain widely divergent though with continued strength likely in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide for now partly helped by interstate migration but softness in other cities, particularly Melbourne.

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