The plunge in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

The attached note looks at the plunge in share markets over the last week. The key points are as follows:

  • Share markets have fallen sharply on the back of coronavirus concerns.

  • Shares may still have more downside and the uncertainty around the coronavirus crisis is very high, but we are of the view that it’s just another correction.

  • Key things for investors to bear in mind are that: corrections are normal; in the absence of recession, a deep bear market is unlikely; selling shares after a fall locks in a loss; share pullbacks provide opportunities for investors to buy them more cheaply; while shares may have fallen, dividends are smoother; and finally, to avoid getting thrown off a long-term investment strategy it’s best to turn down the noise during times like this.

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Key financial advice for 2020

At the 2019 FPA Congress, Money & Life Team asked financial planners what their key financial advice is for Australians in 2020. The most common answer? Ask more questions! Whether it’s something you don’t understand or something that sounds too good to be true, planners say the best thing you can do for yourself and your finances is ask. Watch the video for more advice on how you can best handle your finances.

Watch the video

From bushfires to Coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist

The attached note takes a look at the worry list for investors, which is currently focussed on coronavirus, and how to turn down the noise around investing. The key points are as follows:

  • The coronavirus outbreak, while horrible from a human perspective, is just another of a long list of worries for investors.

  • Our natural inclination to zoom in on negative news combined with a massive ramp up in the availability of information is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more short-term.

Five ways to help manage the noise and turn down the worry list are: put the latest worry in context; recognise that shares return more than cash in the long-term because they can lose money in the short-term; find a process to help filter noise; make a conscious effort not to check your investments so much; look for opportunities that investor worries throw up.

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How to get out of debt

Many of us have debts and bills to manage, but what happens when you’re really struggling to pay? Find out what to do when you fall behind with bill or loan payments and what to expect if you don’t.

The key points are as follow :

  • What to do if you can’t pay

  • Accessing super to pay debts

  • What can happen if you don’t pay

  • What to do about debt recovery

  • How long can debts last?

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Five charts to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

The attached note looks at five charts worth keeping an eye on regarding the global investment outlook. The key points are as follows:

  • Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation after a strong run over the last year and with sentiment now very bullish. However, this year should still see good returns for investors as global growth edges up and interest rates remain low.

  • Five key global charts to watch are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the US yield curve; the US dollar; and global trade growth.

  • So far so good, with PMIs improving a bit, inflation remaining low, the yield curve steepening, the $US showing signs of topping and the US/China trade truce auguring well for some pick up in world trade growth.

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The risks with climate change you could be missing

Human and social development is not possible without water – but it’s an often misunderstood part of the climate change debate. With awareness and action, there are ways the investment community can make an impact. 

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Planning for aged care

The decision to enter aged care can be difficult, but a new range of tools and services helps to simplify the process.

  • The best place to start is at the My Aged Care website.

  • The Department of Human Services’ Financial Information Service can also help you to understand the financial aspects of aged care. 

  • If you are thinking of entering an aged care facility or getting help with living at home, the Department of Human Services may be able to help with the costs.

  • The Department of Human Services has made vast improvements to the aged care forms this year. These forms have been significantly trimmed back in size and the front page now makes it clearer who needs to complete them.

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Review of 2019, outlook for 2020 – the beat goes on

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

The attached note reviews what 2019 meant for investors and takes a look at the outlook for 2020. The key points are as follows:

  • 2019 saw economic and profit growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong.

  • 2020 is likely to see global growth pick up with monetary policy remaining easy. Expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to 0.25% and to undertake quantitative easing.

  • Against this backdrop, share markets are likely to see reasonable but more constrained & volatile returns, and bond yields are likely to back up resulting in good but more modest returns from a diversified mix of assets.

The main things to keep an eye on are: the trade wars, the US election, global growth, Chinese growth, and fiscal versus monetary stimulus in Australia.

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How to save money

When you hear the term ‘savings’ you probably think of the extra money you have in a bank account. But there’s so much more to savings than simply depositing more money into your accounts than you take out. Taking a structured, strategic approach to saving can not only help you achieve your financial goals in the future, it can make managing your day-to-day spending less stressful. Here are five tips to help you save money.

The main points are as follow :

  1. Get serious about budgeting

  2. Change bad buying behaviour

  3. Clear credit card debt

  4. Have dedicated savings accounts

  5. Look for little ways to save money every day

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Not all bonds are created equal: market risks and other considerations

Nathan Boon

In today's environment of low interest rates, many investors are chasing income by moving into lower-quality, high-yield bonds, but are they ignoring the downside risks?

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Why super and growth assets like shares really are long-term investments

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

The attached note looks at why super and growth assets like shares should be seen as long term investments. The key points are as follows:

  • While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds & cash, they provide superior long-term returns. It makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them.

  • The best approach is to simply recognise that super and investing in shares is a long-term investment.

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Australian Retirement Realities

Australia’s superannuation system is often held up as a model of success in the developed world. However Franklin Templeton's 2019 Retirement Income Strategies and Expectations (RISE) Survey found that Australians facing retirement are anxious about whether their savings will last the distance. In fact, 70% of pre-retirees feel that they are behind on saving for retirement.

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Five reasons why I am not so fussed about the global outlook

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist.

The attached note looks at five reasons why I am not so fussed about the global outlook. The key points are as follows:

  • There is no denying concerns about global debt, seemingly never ending QE, more debt trading on negative interest rates, inequality & geopolitical threats.

  • However, some of these concerns are exaggerated and there are five reasons why I am not so fussed about the global outlook. In particular, there is good reason to expect a pick-up in global growth over the next 12 months. This should help underpin further gains in share markets over the next 6-12 months.

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Aged care: Dispelling the myths

Six practitioners answer some commonly asked questions about aged care advice. The key questions are as follow :

Q1. Why did you decide to offer aged care advice?

Q2. How do you start the aged care conversation?

Q3. How did you market your aged care service?

Q4. Has aged care advice grown your business?

Q5. What does your business model look like?

Q6. How do you charge for aged care advice?

Q7. What would you do differently if you were just starting your aged care advice business?

Q8. Can you share a client story that illustrates the value of aged care advice?

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